We will probably see a couple of rounds of showers this weekend, with heavy rain possible

Space City Weather
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Originally published at: We will probably see a couple of rounds of showers this weekend, with heavy rain possible – Space City Weather

In brief: Today’s post discusses the rounds of rain (some heavy) that will come to Houston this weekend, likely bringing us much needed relief from an emerging drought. We are also increasingly confident in a fine, fall front next week.

Pattern change ahead

It has been a remarkably dry September and October in Houston, and we’re not talking about booze. Although we have had some weak fronts back door into the region, none have produced enough atmospheric disruption to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, that will change over the course of the coming week. We are going to see an initial front on Saturday that will bring a couple of rounds of storms, but not too much cooling. Then next week, probably in the vicinity of Wednesday, we are going to see a stronger front that seems unlikely to bring much rain, but will bring significant cooling into the area. If you’ve been waiting for rain, or fall, or both, you’re in luck!

Thursday

Today will be our last day with near-zero rain chances until next week, although we cannot rule out a few isolated showers this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with winds turning more east-southeast, we will see humidity levels rise from what we experienced on Wednesday. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-80s. A few far inland areas may push upward toward 90 degrees, and I’m going to be a little risky here and predict this is our last chance to hit that mark in the year 2025. Lows tonight will be warmer, only falling to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Friday will likely see mostly sunny skies to start, but then with building clouds during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, but overall I still expect this activity to be fairly scattered. So if your plans include Friday Night Lights, the games may well get played. By Friday night we’ll want to keep an eye on conditions to our west. We expect a line of storms to form near the I-35 corridor in Central Texas around midnight, and then advance toward the Houston region overnight.

Saturday

The squall line mentioned above will probably—and bear in mind there remains uncertainty in this timing—push through the Houston metro area around dawn, perhaps in the 6 am to 9 am time frame. Some of these storms could be severe, with the threat of hail. But overall severe storms appear to be less of a threat than heavy rainfall. We need the rain, and it could come in bunches. We expect this line to move through and then to (maybe) be followed by a brief lull in activity during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Careful readers will now we are planning Fall Day festivities from 10 am to Noon in Midtown Park on Saturday. I’ll be back later this morning with a word on our final decision about whether we are going to press ahead. So stay tuned.

Anyway, the front itself should drive another round of showers later on Saturday or Saturday night. All told we think the majority of the region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, but higher local amounts will be possible. Since our soils are so dry they should be able to absorb much of this rainfall, so flooding is not a major concern at this time. But we’ll be watching closely. Temperatures on Saturday should be in the 70s for the most part.

Sunday

Rain chances will be lower (but non-zero) on Sunday. Expect highs in the lower 80s with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 60s, with a bit of drier air.

Next week

The details are still a bit fuzzy, but I think we can expect highs in the low 80s on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a front that will bring drier and cooler air. Anyone ready for lows in the 50s? Because I think that’s coming.

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“Careful readers will now we are planning Fall Day festivities from 10 am to Noon…”

Is ‘now’ suppose to be ‘know’?

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Does this system have garden variety moisture for rain, or does it have full-blown tropical moisture levels?

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Any worry about flash flooding given the dryness of our soils?

Sometimes when you get heavy rain for the first time in weeks, it barely soaks into the ground and instead runs off to the impermeable surfaces that are all too common in Houston.

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I am not getting overly excited about the aspect for heavy rain, because the forcasted accumulations are already going down in my area. It looks like areas further to the east are going to get the bulk of the rain as usual.

And depending on the angle the frontal boundary comes from, the infamous atmospheric cap may prevent any storms from forming at all especially southwest of Houston. This has happened to many times in the past for me to be comfortable with the current forcast as they tend to be overhyped with approaching storm systems especially when we are in drought periods.

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There will be plenty of tropical moisture to work with. The question is wether or not the warm and dry upper air inversion from the desert mountains in Mexico will intercept the approaching front and prevent the tropical air at the surface from rising high enough to cool and condense into rain and thunderstorms. Also know as the “atmospheric cap”

This sneaky cap often suppresses our chances for healthy downpours when cold fronts dive through especially during the fall and spring.

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Is it safe to safe that after next wednesday, we are all but done with 85+ degree weather? or even 80? (reaching i know).

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Seems doubtful. I think probably at least 50% of the T-givings we’ve had in the past decade have been crappy >80F high humidity washouts.

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@Joseph Very true. I’ve lost count at how many times what you describe has happened to me in Jersey Village. It’s almost like there’s a built in cap over this area. Some of it gets through, but a lot of times it just seems to fizzle out just before it gets here.

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And your mention of areas further to the east getting the bulk of it is also very true, i.e. Beaumont/Lake Charles. I’ve lost count of how many times that has happened as well.

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@Martin_Kuykendahl This is just my best guess. It might depend on how hard it rains. Maybe whether the ground is level or whether it slopes. If the ground slopes the initial rain, if it’s a hard rain, might runoff some until the top of the ground gets good and wet. Then with the ground as dry as it is I would think it would absorb better.
A flat ground would probably absorb better, less runoff initially with a hard rain. I doubt there would be saturation.

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80s are never out of the picture even in December and January. If you recall the record warm December of 2021, we had 18 days with highs 80+).

However, we are usually done with 85+ after November.

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@lee I remember one year, but don’t remember which year, we had a temperature of 82°F on Christmas Day.

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Well I just got a stroke of good luck today. I just had one inch of rain fall in my yard in about 20 minutes. The ground is so dry here that it absorbed it all like a sponge.

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