Houston likely to see some rain showers later this week, but they will provide scant relief

[WeatherBot]

Originally published at: Houston likely to see some rain showers later this week, but they will provide scant relief – Space City Weather

In brief: Today’s post provides some more information on the region’s burgeoning drought, and why scattered showers to end this week are unlikely to bring any relief. We also discuss the return of September-like humidity for a couple of days before a front on Sunday.

We could use some rain

As Matt noted on Friday, drought conditions are starting to spread into the region after a dry late summer and early fall period. Houston’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not recorded more than a trace of rain since September 24, and in both August and September the region received substantially lower rainfall totals than normal.

With shorter days and a lower Sun angle we don’t need as much rain to really help out our soils than we would in the middle of summer. A little goes a long way. However, although a decent shot of rain is in the forecast to end this week, the meager amount we are likely to get is not really going to help much. Most areas are likely to get one-tenth of an inch, or less. And that is just not going to cut it. Any significant rain accumulations likely remain eight to 10 days away.

Wednesday

We’re going to enjoy some modestly lower humidity levels for another day or so before the return of the onshore flow. Accordingly, high temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to 90 degrees today, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the northeast. Lows tonight will again drop into the 60s in Houston on Wednesday night, with cooler conditions in suburban and outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day, with highs generally in the upper 80s. However, with dewpoints a good 10 degrees higher than Wednesday, our air will feel more humid. Over the course of the day winds should shift to come more from the southeast. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the lower 70s (with more moisture in the air it will be slower to cool down).

Friday and Saturday

These will be warmer and more humid days, feeling almost like summer outside I’m afraid. With highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees and plenty of humidity it will be a throwback to September. Each day should bring a decent (40 percent, maybe?) chance of showers. But as noted I expect these to be light, short-lived, and bringing hundredths to tenths of an inch of rain (at most). Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny. Nights will be warm, in the lower 70s.

Sunday

A decent shot of drier air will push into the region on Sunday as a front moves in. This will be more of a ‘humidity’ front than a true cool front, but it will still feel somewhat refreshing after Friday and Saturday. look for highs around 90 degrees on Sunday, with cooler conditions on Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows will depend on where you live, but I could see outlying areas drop into the 50s while much of Houston remains in the 60s.

Next week

Sunday’s front will be fairly short lived, with humidity and temperatures likely to rebound early next week. After that we are going to be looking for the possibility of a stronger, more fall-like front. There is still no clear or certain signal yet, but I’m hopeful we might see this at some point during the second half of next week. Notably, the GFS model out just this morning has finally leaned into such a solution, but since we are still a week or more out, I just cannot say anything with high confidence.

[rflores23]

I feel like were trending to have no fall.

highs of 90s and then strong artic front probably mid november leading to highs in the upper 60s.

[Joseph]

I made a similar comment last fall, but I will say it again now. Even though it is not as cool as I or many others would like for it to be, we have still made significant progress from mid-August. We are long done with afternoons in the upper 90s and 100+ degrees. Heat index values of 105+ are a thing of the past until at least late May. In fact, heat index values have not cracked over 90 degrees in several days now where I live.

Most nights have been in the 60s this month, and the past few mornings have been in the upper 50s at the Angleton airport. Also, the sun angle is noticeably lower during the day, so the suns heat feels significantly less intense during the mid afternoon than it does during the summer months. Even though it has been much warmer than usual primarily during the afternoons this month, it is still a huge improvement from the dog days of summer not just feels wise but mathematically.

[Josh]

Nice little Eye of Sauron in the precipiation % map around Midland/Odessa

[Weather]

This is fall. Mornings in the low to mid 60s. People just cant accept the gulf coast.

[DonJarrett]

I’m amazed by the focus here on “when’s it going to get cold?” Plenty of that here December to March when you just gotta have it. Disproportionate to the latitude even. If I’m not comfortable in a TS then I am not a fan. But, the constant living below the jet stream in the sunny blues is definitely unpleasant. Can’t argue with that. As there’s no “Team Rain” and no apparent move to have one, how about just “Team Clouds”. Even that would be nicer than this.

[B_L]

Team Fall + Team Clouds - possibly the best teamup since Arnold and Weathers?

[ThunderstormLover]

The problem is it feels so monotonous. A pleasant fall has a sudden refreshing cold front when one can enjoy the beginning of the comfortable season, rather than such a gradual cooling that it feels like it is not changing at all (especially when it comes with a lack of rain, since rain makes the weather interesting, in addition to feeling refreshing and watering my fall vegetables).

[Joseph]

That is true but most years we’ve had atleast one front by this point that drops lows in the 50s region wide with highs in the 70s or low 80s. Regardless my personal opinion still stands that true fall doesn’t usually begin until November in our region.

Even when we do get a decent cold front in October, it can still get back up into the upper 80s and even 90 degrees in late October, with sticky humidity.

[Joseph]

That is why I typically prefer El Nino autumns because we usually have rainy/cloudy weather and cooler afternoons in October/November with El Nino. With La Nina we get the exact opposite. Long stretches of bone dry hot sun. As a cool weather and storm lover, the months on in of dry sunny hot days is painfully boring for me.