Thunderstorms possible this evening ahead of a Thanksgiving that will be as nice as pie

Originally published at: Thunderstorms possible this evening ahead of a Thanksgiving that will be as nice as pie – Space City Weather

In brief: In today’s post we talk about the potential for storms this evening in Houston as a weak front sags into the area. A second push of colder air will make things feel festive on Thanksgiving Day. And we’ll see the return of a moderately warmer pattern with higher rain chances this coming weekend.

We begin today’s post with a little bit of housekeeping …

A few words on our app

Our appwhich remains completely free and does not track your activity, in other words we do not monetize your data—is now a few years old. We went through some growing pains this year as both app platforms changed things up. Honestly, keeping up with everything in app-land is a lot, and so I’m glad we’ve got Dwight Silverman and Hussain Abbasi to manage all of it. There have been a fair few bugs and issues we had to slog through earlier this year, but I’m happy to report that everything has been working really well for the last couple of months. But don’t take my word for it, here’s a comment sent in by Lily Yee last week. We’re sharing it with her approval:

Hey! I just opened this app for the first time in several weeks (full honesty) and I was SHOCKED by the noticeable, significant improvement in loading speed & reaction time. To your web dev and design team – great job! 🙂 it makes a real difference on the usability. I’ll be putting this app on the front page of my phone screen now!

So if you haven’t downloaded the app, please do so now by clicking here. It’s fun, and free, and even sometimes the forecast is accurate.

Fundraiser

We’re now into the final week of our fundraiser, and I mentioned our app above because the reason we’re able to provide it, and update it, and keep it junk free is because of contributions from our readers. Your donations and purchase of merchandise now allow us to plan for next year. We want to continue iterating on the app (more on this soon) as well as make some other major upgrades like improving the distribution of our newsletter. If you can help out, please do so here.

Monday

Our brief foray with cooler fall weather on Sunday has ended, with this weekend’s front moving back onshore as a warm front overnight. Winds this morning are light, from the southeast, with temperatures around 70 degrees. Accordingly, today will be rather warm, with highs in the low 80s despite mostly cloudy skies. We are going to see scattered (mostly light) showers during the daytime along with very humid air. By this evening, likely around 7 to 9 pm, a broken line of storms associated with a cold front will develop to the northwest of Houston. This line will slowly advance into the city during the late evening hours, and push off the coast after midnight. Damaging winds will be possible with this front, perhaps gusting up to 50 mph, with potentially some hail. Overall rain accumulations will vary widely, but most of us should pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch.

Tuesday

The initial push of cooler air with with this front will be fairly weak. As a result I expect highs of around 80 degrees on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Low temperatures on Tuesday night should drop into the 50s.

Wednesday

A secondary push of colder air arrives overnight, into Wednesday morning, and this will result in breezier northerly conditions. Winds may gust out of the north up to 20 mph on Wednesday. Expect sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Thanksgiving

We’ll start the day clear and cool, and skies will be sunny throughout the day. Really, we have no weather concerns, with light winds expected and highs generally in the upper 60s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The onshore flow resumes on Friday, and we are going to enter a period of mostly cloudy skies and increased rain chances by Saturday morning. High temperatures through Sunday should be in the low- to mid-70s, with modestly increasing humidity levels. Overall I think the area will pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. If you have outdoor plans we’ll keep a close eye on the forecast for you. At this point I think showers will be intermittent rather than wall-to-wall, but we don’t have a good handle on the details yet.

Next week

At some point, perhaps on Monday, a stronger front should push into the region. This is likely to bring some colder conditions, with lows perhaps down to around 40 degrees next week. It does appear as though the first week of December, which is the first week of winter as well, will probably feel decidedly winter-like in Houston. But for now the forecast is still a bit uncertain.

1 Like

Rain? I’ll believe it when I see it.

1 Like

I ended up emptying 4 inches of rain out of my rain gauge in Spring on Saturday morning. That was from Friday night and Saturday.

2 Likes

Send some of that to Brazoria County plz

Clouds are blowing out of the SW. Convection will be thwarted by warm dry desert air. Why don’t the mets factor this?

1 Like

Looking forward to some rain tonight, but 50 mph wind gusts sounds scary!

If you look here, you’ll see a very robust southerly flow moving through the region. A forecast sounding suggests otherwise as well. Additionally, 850 mb RH and surface dew points support decent moisture transport. Spring-like? Probably not, but enough to support some modest to moderate (in places) rainfall and some t-storms.

One thing I’ll point out is that the 500 milibar forcast map shows much drier air at the same time. This may not completely suppress storms from blossoming but it will limit how large the coverage of storms get. So some areas will probably get some strong storms but areas southwest of Houston primarily may not get much at all.

1 Like

Yeah, not to completely dismiss @DonJarrett’s point, that dryness probably even comes down to close to 700 mb. So yeah, depth of moisture may not be great, but there’s all day for the column to continue to moisten up a bit.

If we had a balloon here you’d see the dew point falling away from air temp at height. The forecast sounding isn’t terribly useful.

@August Nothing severe, please!!!:crossed_fingers:

1 Like

I’ll do what I can! :laughing:

Its incredibly disappointing we’ve essentially had another month of summer. Its concerning people are accepting this as normal.

At this point, if we are lucky, we will have december, january, and february as a bring from hot and humid weather. I saw a stat that this year so far we have had i think 250 days of 80+ degree weather, is that normal?

One of the many reasons I’m bailing out of here when I retire. Houston has one of the worst climates in America.

No. Atleast it didn’t used to be.

I enjoy not having to shovel, drive in, or otherwise deal with snow.

3 Likes

Same. I grew up in Wisconsin and moved to the Pacific Northwest for 4 years after college, only to stupidly move back to Wisconsin for 4 more years of being reminded why I don’t want to live there. I’ve been a happy Texan for almost 18 years now.

2 Likes

This topic was automatically closed after 24 hours. New replies are no longer allowed.