Thanksgiving week looks cooler. Also, are we buying the hype around a 'stratospheric warming event' in early December?

Space City Weather
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Originally published at: Thanksgiving week looks cooler. Also, are we buying the hype around a ‘stratospheric warming event’ in early December? – Space City Weather

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the region’s ongoing, record-setting heat; our uncertain rain chances for this weekend, and an eventual cooldown next week. We also dive into the chatter about a ‘sudden stratospheric warming event,’ and what that might mean for Texas.

What is a stratospheric warming event, anyway?

In recent days there has been buzz about a sudden warming in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, about 5 to 25 mph above the surface, above the poles. This is the stratosphere, where the atmosphere is very thin. It lies above the troposphere, where we live, and most of our weather patterns develop. However, when there is a significant warming of the stratosphere over the poles it can influence conditions lower in the atmosphere. Such is the case with a “sudden stratospheric warming event.”

The first thing to understand is that that such events are poorly understood, both in terms of why they occur, and what their impacts are. However this stratospheric warming does, at times, lead to a weakening of the polar vortex that bottles up colder air at the poles of the planet. And it is possible that the present stratospheric warming event will weaken the polar vortex at the North Pole, and send some of this colder air shooting down into the Northern Hemisphere in about 10 days to two weeks.

Some of our AI modeling guidance suggests this will happen over North America. However, it is equally plausible at this point that the colder air will be released into Europe or Asia. For example, in the AI version of the European model we see the most significantly colder air pushed into Russia, with a lesser helping slipping down into the United States. In this scenario it would bring near-freezing temperatures to the Houston area during the early days of December. However this is just one outcome, and we would strongly caution wariness about such long-range forecasts.

Thursday

Ok, after our brief tour of global and upper atmospheric weather, let us return to our focus on Houston. It may not be stratospheric, but the city tied its record high of 85 degrees on Wednesday (previously set in 1985). Today’s record high is 84 degrees, and we probably will tie this record today as well, if not beat it. Conditions will remain very humid, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. This afternoon will be windier, with gusts as high as 20 mph, from the south. There will be a slight chance of rain today and tonight, perhaps 10 or 20 percent. Any showers that develop will pass quickly. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

This will be another warm day, with temperatures in the mid-80s. A front will sag toward the area, and this will increase shower and (possibly) thunderstorm chances. However I must say that as we have gotten into the territory of higher resolution models they have really backed off on the potential for precipitation. I still think there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday and Friday night, but the overall rain totals will be on the lower side, with most areas probably picking up less than one-half inch through Saturday. Lows Friday night will remain warm, likely in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weak front is going to move into Houston and stall out. This will have some interesting and unpredictable effects on our weather this weekend. It’s likely that some areas inland of Interstate 10 will see some drier and briefly cooler air, with perhaps the maximum extent of this nose of drier air occurring on Saturday night into Sunday morning. The presence of the stalled front will also mean that the region continues to see a decent chance of showers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. These will not be wall to wall showers by any means, but should mostly be brief. However we can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. Anyway, my guess for temperatures this weekend is low 80s, with partly sunny skies. Some inland areas may drop into the lower 60s on Saturday night as the front reaches its furthest extent.

Next week

The ‘front’ should lift back north on Sunday only to be followed by a second front that looks to be stronger. This will bring a healthy chance of rain on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday or Wednesday we should see an influx of cooler and drier air. My prediction for Thanksgiving Day remains for morning temperatures in the lower 50s, with highs in the upper 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Lows will bottom out on Friday and Saturday, probably. Anyway, it should feel more like late November in Houston, finally. Precise details to come.

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Just not gong to rain folks. Drought worsens

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17,601,043 people in drought areas in TX

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Let’s be a little more constructive with our comments—if you want to weigh in, an actual conversational contribution is a lot more useful than two back-to-back doom-and-gloom posts without any actual content to them.

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Models are forecasting a weaker polar vortex through most of the month of December. Which would probably mean polar air would be displaced somewhere south. Hopefully bringing an end to our November heat wave and a cooler/colder December. We can only hope…

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@Matt also dove into this topic in yesterday’s Eyewall post.

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Weather’s comment was OK! Hope he/she’s not sensitive. It caused me to look at the latest drought monitor map issued today…most of TX in mod to sev drought. As there was no mention of it in the post today the comment was additive and constructive of this witty weather.

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So, it’s going to get colder because it is getting warmer, even though it’s hot now.

Makes as much sense as anything these days.

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A wise man once said, “Nothing last forever, even cold (or warm, or in the case of Texas none) November rain.”

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I’d be interested in a post or part of a post comparing the current drought conditions to droughts Houston has had in the past.

There has got to be a light at the end of the tunnel.

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Ha Ha it’s looking like fall of 2010….if you’ve been around awhile you’ll know what that led to!

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I don’t get this whole team thing? Is team winter and team fall kind of like Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, Ravenclaw and Slythern? Do I need to go through rush week? Can I be a free agent? I have always kind of admired Notre Dame for being an independent.

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@Glenn I believe teams started back in the summer when we had to register, or whatever it was we did. Forgive my memory. Look for Groups on the left side of the screen. Click on it and there are choices you can make to join a group, like your favorite season. If I were still in Virginia, I would’ve picked Team Summer, because the summers in southwest Virginia are mostly milder with cool nights. But I am in Jersey Village, so it was down to either Team Spring or Team Fall. Team Fall won out because we are getting away from the hot summers and hopefully toward cooler fall weather. In the spring I’m dreading the hot weather to come.

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It’s just for fun, given how often people have been talking about liking or disliking winter/summer :slight_smile: Each “team” is a Discourse group, which is a structure that you can put accounts into and assign properties/permissions to them in aggregate rather than individually. For our usage here, joining your account to a seasonal “team” gives you the option to display that group’s badge overlay on your forum avatar and to show a “Team (Whatever)” tag after your forum name. But there’s nothing to it other than that! (You can join more than one group, so if you wanted to you could, say, join all of them and then change your badge/title around seasonally!)

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Yea, I was in hurry this morning and quickly posted about it using the numbers from the drought monitor site.

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I think that was the year i moved here and i can’t remember what happened lol

I just remember thinking ‘this sure is a nice drought!’ since I moved from a desert climate

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We have had much worse droughts than this even at this time of the year. One thing all of our past droughts have in common is that eventually they all come to an end. They can persist for a long time, over a year in some instances in the distant past, but eventually the warm Gulf waters and a change in jet stream pattern will always bring our droughts to their knees at some point.

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The 2011 drought was one of the worst in the States history. The majority of Texas was in a D4 (Exceptional Drought) for over 6 months including the Houston area. And it was at the time the hottest summer in Houston until 2023. However, I think the summer of 2011 is still the hottest for the state of Texas collectively.

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