Originally published at: So this summer, it’s going to be bad right? – Space City Weather
In brief: In today’s post we take a look at the likely development of El Niño, and what that means for this summer, as well as next year. We also report on a forecast this week that will bring a lot of sunshine to Houston before a weak front arrives this weekend.
El Niño looms, and what it means for summer
It is becoming increasingly likely that a warmer phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, is likely to develop later this year, possibly by the summer. Although localized to the Pacific Ocean, the periodic warming and cooling there has global impacts, including providing upward pressure on global temperatures (The Climate Brink has a good overview of this). The latest modeling suggests that the El Niño likely to peak later this year will be a rather strong one, potentially one of the two strongest experienced during the last 40 years.
At this point you might be expecting me to say something like, with such a strong El Niño the United States will probably experience its warmest summer on record. And while that is possible, I would point out that the response from global surface temperatures typically lags the peak of El Niño by a couple of months, and right now I don’t expect it to peak until the end of this year. So the summer of 2027? Yeah, probably brutally hot.
But what about our forthcoming summer? Temperatures running about six degrees above normal for March 2026 do not give me the warm and fuzzies about what is to come. I would note that NOAA’s recently updated outlook predicted above normal temperatures for this summer, but not abnormally so.
In reality I expect we will see one of our warmest summer ever. My basis for this prediction is pretty simple. Based on average temperature (which is, simply, a daytime high and low temperature, divided by two) the last four summers have all ranked among the 10 warmest summers on record in Houston. The torrid summer of 2023 set the mark, at 88.0 degrees, but last summer was not far behind, ranking sixth overall at 86.0 degrees.
Monday
If you’re out hunting for meteorites to the northwest of Harris County today (NASA has a detailed map of where to look) you can expect fine weather to do so. We will see mostly cloudy skies this morning give way to more sunny conditions, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. Winds this afternoon will reach about 10 mph, with gusts up to 15 mph. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it’s modestly humid, but not oppressively so. I have been finding recent evenings to be quite pleasant outside. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid-60s for most parts of the area, a little warmer near the coast and a little cooler further inland.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
There will be a little variation for the rest of the week. Some days (Tuesday, perhaps) may have a few more clouds. But for the most part these will be mostly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s, modest humidity, and lows in the mid-60s. It will feel more like early May than late March, but that’s not to say it won’t be fairly nice outside. Rain chances are basically nil, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out a sprinkle on Tuesday. Fog is also likely to return during the overnight and early morning hours.
Saturday and Sunday
A weak front will likely push into the Houston metro area on Friday night or Saturday morning. This is unlikely to bring any precipitation with it (more on that in a moment) but it should usher in some slightly cooler weather. Look for highs this weekend to likely top out in the 70s, with lows perhaps in the 50s. Regardless, skies should remain mostly sunny. If you’re planning to attend the Houston Open golf tournament this week and weekend you really have no weather concerns aside from warmer-than-normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday, and the need for sunscreen on all four days.
Next week
Next week does begin to look a little more promising for rainfall. Obviously we’re days and days away, but most of our model guidance points to increasing rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. So it’s something we’ll monitor, but not about which I’m prepared to make any promises yet.
