Originally published at: As we slog through August, let’s spare a few words for El Niño winter hype – Space City Weather
In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s ongoing heat, and the potential for a slight respite during the second half of this week, and through the weekend. We also share some thoughts about El Niño and winter weather hype.
A few words on El Niño
The following section is a re-post from our companion site, The Eyewall. On Monday evening Matt wrote about the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season (it’s still dead), why it’s likely to remain quiet for at least the next week or two, and how El Niño should help keep activity on the lower side for the remainder of the season. He also addressed the topic of El Niño and the upcoming winter. It concerns winter in general for the United States, but is also applicable to Houston:
One thing I want to make sure the general public understands about this and the media ecosystem and content creation system today: You are going to hear people start making bold proclamations about El Niño and winter. Yes, winter. In August. It’s nonsense.
People will cherry pick the most exciting (read: cold/snowy) model they can get their hands on for winter to basically draw you into engagement. They’ll couch it in language like, “This is only one solution, and it’s not necessarily likely to happen, but when I see this, I take notice!” It’s a digital dopamine hit. And it’s just not right, nor is it being a meteorologist. It’s picking a cold model because they know you, the reader or viewer gets excited about that, and it will spur you into engagement, which in turn helps you to feed the beast, as it were.
It used to be rogue “social mediarologists” that did this, but it has gotten far worse and extended into professionals that know (or should know) better, particularly on the broadcast side of things. And a lot of the legacy media tries to draw you in with big, bold headlines too. Bottom line: If someone is selling you a historic cold or snowy winter right now, don’t buy the hype. Sure, there could be a storm or two—as happens almost every winter. That’s not exactly a forecast; it’s called climatology.
I would also add that some of Houston’s recent Arctic outbreaks, including the Valentines’ freeze of 2021, came during La Niña winters.
Ok, on to Houston’s upcoming forecast.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Are we having fun yet? Houston’s official high temperature on Monday reached 99 degrees, and we’re heading back into that realm for the next couple of days. We are going to see plenty of sunshine, plenty of heat, and plenty of humidity. Could we also see some spotty rain showers? Yes, but the overall likelihood of rain is on the order of 10 percent for both days. Nights remain warm of sultry; sultry and warm; every evening and every morn. The doggerel will continue until morale improves.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday
We’ll see increased atmospheric moisture levels toward the end of this week thanks to the Gulf, and this will have some subtle effects on our weather. Possibly Thursday, but very likely by Friday, we’ll see a few more clouds, and high temperatures will slip back into the low- to mid-90s across most of the region. Thanks to the sea breeze, we are likely to see scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I wouldn’t set your expectations too high, as overall daily chances are on the order of 20 or 30 percent. But it’s higher than what we’ve seen in recent weeks.
Next week
This modestly cooler pattern may persist into Monday or Tuesday of next week before I think we’re going to see sunnier and hotter weather. We’ll likely be at least back into the mid-90s by mid-week, and possibly higher. The joys of August!
