Originally published at: Uncertainty in forecast continues, but widespread showers are possible on Friday and/or Saturday – Space City Weather
In brief: We’re continuing to struggle with the details for the forecast this weekend. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they’re far from a slam dunk. Sunday looks sunny and warmer.
Thursday
A weak front has pushed into Houston, and as a result we’re seeing slightly cooler conditions this morning. Some outlying areas, such as Conroe, are in the low 60s while most of the rest of the region has dropped into the mid- to upper-80s with slightly drier air. This is about the maximal extent of the front, which will eventually drift back onshore. Conditions overall today will be fair, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and modestly lower humidity. Rain chances are near zero. Winds shift from northeast to easterly later today, so we can expect a warmer night, with lows perhaps dropping only to 70 degrees.
Friday and Saturday
The front will essentially move back onshore and serve as a focus for rainfall, some of it possibly heavy, on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. It’s not a slam dunk, however. In fact I think there’s a solid chance of a busted forecast, which if you’ve been reading my daily updates all week, you know I’ve been struggling to make sense of the data.
Most likely, what I think will happen is that we will see scattered showers on Friday. Then, possibly on Friday night or early Saturday, a more organized round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, followed by more scattered showers during the daytime on Saturday. But am I confident in this forecast? I am not. I could easily see most of Houston picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night, and I could easily see most of Houston picking up 0.1 to 0.3 inches of rain during this period. Severe weather appears to be a low-end possibility, so I’m not really concerned about that. Fortunately Matt is on the schedule to write Friday morning’s update, and it will be his responsibility to sort all of this out for us.
As for temperatures, humidity levels will recover quickly, but clouds should limit high temperatures. I think we’re looking at highs near 80 degrees on Friday, and a little warmer on Saturday.
Sunday
Following a string of cloudier weather, we’re pretty confident that this will be a warmer and sunnier day. Most of the area can expect to reach the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds look light. For outdoor activities this weekend, Sunday looks to be the day. Lows on Sunday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.
Monday and beyond
This should be another partly to mostly sunny day, with a weak front moving into the area (this probably will not bring too much rain with it, if any). Highs should be in the mid-80s. Lows on Monday night could drop into the 60s. Most of next week likely will see highs in the 80s, with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overall rain chances appear to be fairly low but they could rise as we get toward, or into next weekend.
