Summer stubbornly holding on in Texas half way through September

Space City Weather
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Originally published at: Summer stubbornly holding on in Texas half way through September – Space City Weather

In brief: We have now reached mid-September and a summer-like pattern remains largely in place across the state. Does this mean September in Houston is actually worse than August?

Is September bad, or not?

Matt and I routinely debate whether August or September is the worst month in Houston. I say August because it is guaranteed to be sizzling hot, and there is no hope for respite. Matt argues that September is worse because it holds the false promise of fall, when it fact the region typically does not experience meaningful cooling until October. Alas this September is doing me no favors, with statewide temperatures running well above normal and fall nowhere in sight.

This week offers a meaningful example. Last week the models were teasing us with a cool front around the Friday or Saturday period, but now as we get closer to that time frame we can see that, at best, we are going to receive a slight push of drier air. That’s not what we all wanted, but so it goes with phantom fronts in September. Anyway, I still think September is better. I like the slightly cooler daytime highs, and with shorter days the evenings cool off a little faster. But September is definitely not fall in Houston.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With high pressure more or less holding on, we are going to have a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We should see a puncher’s chance of showers on both days, with perhaps a 20 percent chance south of I-10, and slightly less inland. Winds will be light, generally from the southwest. Overnight lows may briefly drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

We are going to see a surge of atmospheric moisture on Thursday, and this will bring a few more clouds in the sky and improved potential for some rain. Shower chances are probably 50 percent for areas south of I-10, and 30 percent for areas further inland. With more clouds, high temperatures for most of the region should max out in the lower 90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are likely to see some slightly drier air this weekend, but set your expectations to “low.” We should see mostly sunny skies this weekend with highs in the low- to mid-90s thanks to slightly lower humidity. Nights may be a few degrees cooler, with lows in the mid- to upper-70s. Rain chances will be near zero. Mornings and evenings will be tolerable outside, if not overly pleasant.

Next week

Similar weather continues next week. After a dry weekend, some slight rain chances may return by the middle of next week. As for a front, maybe there’s something to watch for eight to 10 days from now? But we are still in the “hope” stage rather than the “expectant” stage.

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“Happily we bask in this warm September sun, which illuminates all creatures.” – Henry David Thoreau

The mid 90’s common around here in September feel so much better than the 100+ temps we are so familiar with in August. And just the hope of a late September “Fall Day” is relieving when compared to the lack of optimism for anything but heat and humidity in August.

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I think it’s understandable that Matt, growing up in the northeast, is wired to expect September to get cooler even if he is a meteorologist who understands Houston weather!

Matt’s September is my October. As a native Houstonian, I don’t have the “September is fall” gene. I have the “October is fall” gene, and I really don’t get antsy for a real cool front until then. When it’s hot in October, as it often is, THEN I start to get a little irrationally mad at the weather. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Firstly - September is better than August. There should be no debate there.

Secondly, Eric - I have had a similar discussion with my sister for years. She lives in Gainesville, Florida, which does have slightly cooler/less humid weather than Houston. She insists that September is the beginning of fall and when we can have hope. We agree that August is the worst month, but my opinion is that September is better than August, yet I will still have no hope whatsoever of nice weather. If it comes, pleasant surprise. If not, well…I’m not disappointed. October is when I start to perk my ears up and slightly hope for nice weather. Maybe, maybe not. But October, I have hope. November is when we better get some decent fall weather or I start to get severely annoyed.

This September seems to be supporting my case (at least here in Houston). Hot and annoying, but far nicer than August was. Definitely not fall though.

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The warm weather gets an assist on the new #1 college team in the nation. Did you see how gassed the Ohio state players were in the fourth quarter? No cold front was worth seeing that.

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97° is not common for the area. 87° is what it used to be just several years ago. If you remember we had NO Fall in 2024 and 2025. Is it getting hotter here or am I older now (65) and it bothers me more? Both! :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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September is summer, pool time, and swim up bars at the hotel, enjoy it. Warmer weather allows humans to be out and about and actually do stuff. Cold…not so much.

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Remember, in October you get to mow biweekly instead of weekly. That’s a positive!

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97 isn’t “normal” in Houston this late in the year in terms of 30 year averages, however, there have been numerous times in the past that it did reach the upper 90s in mid to late September. Heck, in 2005 it hit 100 degrees in Houston on September 27th, the latest triple digit day ever for now. We didn’t get an actual cool front that year until October 6th.

But to answer your question, yes it’s definitely getting hotter and will continue to do so. We will still have sharp variations in the fall and winter, but “average wise” it will continue to go up and up with no end in sight.

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What is it that is causing early fall to be so much drier than average the past 5 or so years? Normally this is our second rainy season. It seems this fall is following the same pattern as the past several years despite El Niño. Not quite as bad as some of the past couple years but not much better.

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My guess is the subtropical high has been stronger over Texas in early fall over the past 10 years. And an unlucky roll of the dice weather pattern.

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Rain please… pretty please?.. with sugar on top?

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On this, Thoreau can kiss my heinie. I certainly do not “happily bask” in our rather hot September sun.

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It think in 2009 we were in the 90s part of November.

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Yes, and therein lies the problem for those of us that have somewhere with a bonafide fall and distinct seasons. September is a gut punch, even though I’ve been here 15 years now. Meanwhile my son woke up Sunday morning in Minnesota to 54 degrees and a bit of drizzle. I would love that again. Hopefully in a couple of years that will be the case.

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Horse manure. There’s no bad weather, just inappropriate clothing. I’ve lived in many colder places and thrived outdoors throughout the year.

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I dont understand the summer hate in this city. It really isnt even close to bad. I lived in Phoenix and 110 dry air is bad. Your sweat evaporates and you dehydrate in minutes. The problem Im seeing is how little rain Houston has. I thought it would be more wet over here. Lots of forecasts for rain and a few clouds but that’s it. I feel like the monsoon brings more rain to Arizona in the summers.

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August or September in Houston? Neither.

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Just now saw that ABC 13 updated their 10 day forecast, most days had highs of 94-95 and a few with just 90. Now, everyday’s high for the next 10 days is 96-97 degrees. ouch.

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Very Scandinavian thing to say, but I doubt Scandinavians ever cowered in the closet under their stairs when the eyewall of a Cat 3 hurricane passed ten miles to their west. Benn there, done that, don’t want to do it again.

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