In which I make a bold (and possibly wrong) prediction about Houston's weather

[WeatherBot]

Originally published at: In which I make a bold (and possibly wrong) prediction about Houston’s weather – Space City Weather

In brief: In today’s post I make a bold prediction about Houston’s weather for the rest of the year. Also, temperatures continue to trend downward for the weekend, as the cold front looks even more robust. But do be mindful of strong winds on Friday afternoon, evening, and overnight.

So long, 90s?

Culturally, the 90s are probably my favorite decade: Super Nintendo, burning CDs, Seinfeld, the last decade before social media and screens began to take over, the end of the Cold War, and so much more. It felt like a much simpler time. But I digress—the 90s are great for a decade, but not so much for temperatures. And we’ve had a lot of them this year, 128 days and counting in Houston. Now that we’re in mid-October, shouldn’t we be saying sayonara to the 90s?

We should, and hopefully we will. I think there’s a decent chance that today is the final 90-degree day in Houston for the calendar year 2026. I cannot make this a locked-in guarantee. Houston has been known to reach highs of 90 degrees all the way through October. But we’re only a couple of weeks from that date, and we are running out of opportunities.

We are going to cool down very nicely this weekend, and at least some lingering effects from the front will last into early next week. Then we’re going to have a period from about Wednesday into next weekend when I think there’s a chance for us to reach the upper 80s, or possibly 90 degrees. But the modeling is far from certain about this, and I believe it’s just as likely that we stay comfortably cooler than that. So my bold and hopeful prediction is that after today, we’re done with 90s in Houston.

Thursday

As noted above, we’ve got one more warm-to-hot day today, with partly sunny skies and highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. It will be fairly humid, but not as oppressively so as earlier in the week. There is about a 10 percent chance of a stray shower passing over, but it would be brief. Lows tonight will again drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Friday

We’ll start out somewhat muggy, but by around 6 to 9 am we are going to see winds shift to come from the north pretty sharply. This is likely to be a truly in-your-face front with the abrupt wind shift. Humidity will drop some initially, and then much drier air will follow during the early afternoon hours. I think it is possible that we’ll see some scattered showers along and ahead of the front, but probably nothing too serious. In terms of highs, I expect much of Houston to remain in the 70s on Friday, and some inland areas might even fall into the 60s during the afternoon hours. (Yeah, folks, it’s quite a front in terms of temperatures).

A notable thing to look out for is gusty winds. I’ve been talking about these for most of the week, but we could see gusts on Friday afternoon and Friday evening up to about 35 to 40 mph in Houston, with even higher gusts along the coastline later on. Lows on Friday night also look to be lower than previously expected, probably in the lower 50s for much of the region away from the immediate coast.

Saturday

It’s going to start out chilly, especially with northerly winds continuing to blow through the morning hours at about 15 mph, gusting up to 25 mph. For some inland areas, with the winds, it could briefly “feel” like temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning. However winds should start to slacken during the afternoon hours. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, with sunny skies. As winds die down, we should see an even cooler night on Saturday, with lows in neighborhood of 50 degrees in Houston, and potentially the upper 40s for some inland areas.

Sunday

This will be another sunny day, but with lower winds. Expect highs in the mid-70s and low humidity. This will be one of the 10 finest weather days of the year in Houston. Enjoy!

Next week

This front now appears to have more sticking power than thought, so we’re not going to warm up too abruptly next week. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s, and I think most of next week should bring highs in the low- to mid-80s. Lows will be in the 60s. There will be a smattering of rain chances, but nothing I can point to with any confidence.

[Blackhawks_Fan]

The best thing about the 1990s - Houston was not hit by a hurricane that decade.

(Though TS Dean was a bit of a problem in Chambers County.)

[analogkid84]

I’ll always b!tch about the heat and humidity, but this will feel really nice. It’s a shame though, that this will largely be a dry front and next week is looking pretty dry as well. We absolutely do need the rain, which is true for pretty much the entire state.

[Joseph]

This is my not very skilled bar and pie chart to demonstrate the seasons over a 12 month period in southeast Texas.

[Joseph]

Yes, it is pretty disappointing that we have a “record strong” El Nino in mid October, and the ground is rock hard and cracked, with no significant rain in sight. The subtropical jet stream is just not strengthening and positioning itself south where it usually does this time of year during El Nino periods.

I still have hope that at some point the amplified tropical jet stream pattern over Texas driven by El Nino will emerge later this fall or winter and bring us frequent soaking rains. We just need to snuff out this stubborn upper level dome of high pressure that has been stuck over the state first.

[analogkid84]

I honestly didn’t expect much influence in the early-mid autumn timeframe. The longwave pattern is amplifying more now though so hopefully, in the coming weeks and months, we will see a more active pattern over the region and, as you said, shove away/collapse this high pressure over us.

[lee]

“We’ve had one summer, yes, but what about Second Summer?”

“I don’t think he knows about Second Summer, Pip!”

[tanstaafl]

Eric lately I am very impressed with your forecasting. You are out-doing whatever system creates the local forecast for Houston at the National Weather Service website.

[Joseph]

Also can’t forget about our 3rd summer, which starts in November.

[BobViolence]

I’ve always said Houston only has two seasons: Summer and Not Summer.

[JFS]

Long range Euro looking good in the rainfall department in November. We shall see.

[rflores23]

i dont remember the exact metrics, but there was a map of the US and all major cities with the amount of “nice” weather days. Houston had around 50, the rest of the country for the most part was in the 100s, while in california 200+.

[rflores23]

are we confident that november through february is going to be london like?

[Weather]

Why would you pay attention to something bias as that? it’s all based on opinion. Up north it’s freezing for months, everything is dead and miserable. At least when it’s summer and hot we still have AC and pools and everything is still alive and green.

[Joseph]

Because most people consider “nice” days to be sunny, with low humidity and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Houston doesn’t have many days like that anymore, and the amount is shrinking more and more. Areas up north have far more days like that even if it means harsh winters. It’s just a statistical fact.

Sure, alot people absolutely prefer it much hotter or cooler, but most people generally prefer mild temperatures, sunshine, and low humidity. That is why so many people love the west coast of California.