Originally published at: Houston’s heat should peak this weekend with highs in the low 100s – Space City Weather
In brief: In today’s post we put Houston’s ongoing heat wave into context, noting that our temperatures are very warm but should generally fall short of record highs. Also could we start to see a slight reprieve later next week?
Heat wave
There is no sugarcoating our weather for the next seven to 10 days. The remainder of August in Houston is going to be brutally hot, although our daily highs should fall a few degrees below record high temperatures (which range between 103 and 109 degrees for the last 10 days of August). Normal highs for this time of year are generally in the low- to mid-90s, so we’re going to be well above that.
In terms precipitation the default forecast is no rain for the remainder of the month. However, we are going to see some weak disturbances rotating through the region over the next week, so the daily rain chances are probably something on the order of 5 to 10 percent. This means that there will be a slight possibility of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms on some afternoons. Most of us, to be clear, will see nothing for at least the next week.
There is no conclusive end to this weather pattern. The European forecast model suggests the upper air pattern will shift enough about a week from now to bring us closer to normal temperatures for this time of year, so possibly a cooler overall pattern. But I want to see more data before I find this forecast persuasive. Typically when we get locked into this high pressure patterns they are difficult to break in late summer.
Thursday and Friday
Expect sunny skies, with high temperatures in Houston in the vicinity of 100 degrees. Only coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler, thanks to the slightly moderating influence of the Gulf. Nights will be warm and muggy, with lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Rain chances, as noted above, are very low, but not quite zero.
Saturday and Sunday
The forecast remains the same, more or less, but daytime temperatures might actually be 1 or 2 degrees warmer.
Next week
Monday and Tuesday should see continued very, very warm weather. By mid-week, or later, we could start to see daytime highs come down into the upper-90s, and the possibly mid-90s by next weekend. But am I making any promises? No, I am not.
Atlantic tropics
The tropics remain dead quiet for now, but as Matt wrote on The Eyewall this morning, we are tracking a couple of tropical waves that should move off Africa in the coming days. One of them has a decent chance of developing. However, our overall concerns for the Gulf remain very, very low for the time being.
