Originally published at: Warmer this week, with decent rain chances, before a front hops in ahead of Easter Sunday – Space City Weather
In brief: In today’s post I share a few words of appreciation for Matt Lanza, my long-time partner here. As for the forecast, we have a very welcome return of rain chances after three weeks, and the latest on the timing of a front just before Easter Sunday.
Matt heads north
You probably saw the news yesterday that Matt’s family is moving from Houston to Connecticut, and I fully support his decision and the reasons he articulated for doing so. Houston does have a fraught relationship with extreme weather—I’ve lived here for 30 years and some of these experiences helped formulate my career. Matt is a critical part of what we do here. Almost from the beginning of Space City Weather he has been an integral part of building this site, helping to set its editorial tone, and playing an important role in the forecasts we hit, and our occasional misses. In a world that can be callous, he is kind, thoughtful, and compassionate. I’m thrilled he will continue to be involved here. As for me, the majority of my family lives here in the Houston area, my kids are here, and perhaps one day so will my grandkids. I cannot imagine leaving them, so you’re stuck with me.
Tuesday
Today is probably our final day with mostly sunny skies for most of the day. This will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s for most of the area, with a warm southerly flow at the surface. Winds may gust up to 20 mph, or a touch higher, this afternoon. Hopefully this will help bring down some of the final tree pollen. We’ve got to be nearing the end of that season, right? We may also see some scattered, very light showers today but anything that reaches the surface will be very light. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees, very warm for this time of year.
Wednesday and Thursday
These will be warm days, with highs likely in the range of the mid-80s and plenty of humidity. However, instead of mostly sunny skies we will see more clouds, and along with that higher rain chances. Odds are better north of Interstate 10, as a front supporting rain showers will be stalling out north of the metro area. Still, everyone has a decent shot of rain on both days, and I expect accumulations of roughly a tenth of an inch to a few tenths of an inch. Some pockets of heavier rainfall are possible, so I wouldn’t rule out a few bullseyes of 1 inch or more. We’ll keep an eye on things. Overnight lows remain very sultry for this time of year, perhaps only falling into the low 70s.
Friday
Rain chances will fall back to 10 or 20 percent on Friday, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-80s with another warm night.
Saturday and Sunday
Temperature wise, Saturday will start out like the rest of the week, warm and muggy. Light showers will be possible during the first part of the day. The timing of the front is still a little bit uncertain, but at this point I anticipate the best chance for showers (along with the potnetial for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall) will come between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations I’ll guess most locations pick up an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but this forecast is still evolving.
At some point on Saturday evening, or perhaps around midnight, drier and cooler air will begin flowing in from the north. Temperautres by Easter Sunday morning probably will be in the upper 50s, with a moderate northerly breeze. Highs on Sunday should be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, but let’s wait an see. The biggest question is rain showers. I do think there will be some lingering activity on Sunday morning, but I’m hopeful this will clear out during the afternoon hours. Skies will remain cloudy regardless. Lows on Sunday night could drop to around 50 degrees outside of Houston, with slightly warmer conditions in the city.
Next week
Sunshine returns next week, and we should see some lovely spring-time weather. Look for days in the 70s through Wednesday, probably, with nights in the 50s. Humidity should remain pleasantly low through Wednesday or Thursday, so again, some very nice weather to look forward to!
