A weak front sags into Houston today, and on Valentine's Day will Houston say "Be mine" to rainfall?

Originally published at: A weak front sags into Houston today, and on Valentine’s Day will Houston say “Be mine” to rainfall? – Space City Weather

In brief: In today’s update we discuss a weak front that will work its way into Houston today. We also look ahead to a soggy Valentine’s Day, and then ample sunshine for the remainder of the holiday weekend.

Valentine’s Day outlook

Well, this won’t be the frigid holiday weekend that Houston experienced five years ago, that’s for sure. However, Saturday and Saturday evening do look pretty soggy across the region as a disturbance moves into the region, preceding a cold front. Rain chances are nearly 100 percent on Valentine’s Day, although most of this should fall as light to moderate rain showers. It won’t be constant, and it probably won’t be severe, but if you’re planning anything romantic outdoors I would definitely have some fall back plans. Most areas will likely pick up between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain, although as usual totals will vary widely. Rains should end sometime on Saturday evening or early Sunday.

Wednesday

We are seeing some mostly light showers north and northwest of the city this morning (i.e. in locations such as The Woodlands). This rain is associated with a weak front that is slowly moving into the area. This front is not particularly strong, and it is fading. But I expect it to bring some drier air into the region today and tonight, probably at least down to the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor, and possibly even closer to the coast. High temperatures today will still reach the upper 70s for most locations, with partly sunny skies. Lows tonight probably will drop into the 50s for inland areas with the drier air, but I am less certain about temperatures near the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These days both should be partly sunny and warm, with temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds will be generally light, from the south. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60, while Friday night will be a few degrees warmer.

Saturday

As noted above, Valentine’s Day is looking fairly wet, with showers likely and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Highs will probably reach the mid-70s, with lows on Saturday night in the upper 50s.

Sunday and Monday

For many people this will be a three-day weekend, with President’s Day on Monday. Luckily, both of these days will be really nice with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Sunday morning looks breezy, but things should settle down some by Sunday afternoon, hopefully. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Rest of next week

Most of the rest of next week will see warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with nighttime lows generally around 60 degrees. Another weak front may arrive by Thursday or Friday of next week, but there is no clear signal in the models either way. As noted in the title of today’s update, spring-like weather is here to stay for awhile even though we’re still in the middle of February.

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Despite the cold spell we had in late January, this winter is still averaging 2.7 degrees above normal at Bush Airport. That is to be expected with La Nina, hower regardless of the ENSO, I believe over the past 10 years every winter except 2020-2021 has been above normal in our region.

The 2020-2021 winter was just a fraction below the average line only because of the freak February freeze we had. So even though we can still get very cold at times, the trend towards warmer weather is still quite clear. And it isn’t just the winters that have been consistently above average either.

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Also this February is probably going to go down in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record for Houston. Almost every month ends up ranking in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record now. I wish this obvious trend towards a warming climate would stop or atleast slow down but it doesn’t seem to be losing any steam.

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@Joseph Me too. I’m not a fan of it.

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Our entire winter of 2025-2026 is going to be remembered as the winter that wasn’t.

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Since El Nino is possibly knocking on our door, I have a tiny bit of hope for a more traditional winter next year, with frequent cold, dreary, rainy days. However, I am not holding my breath for that at the same. We will just have to wait and see. :crossed_fingers::crossed_fingers:

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@Joseph And also, I’m hoping for what El Nino is “supposed” to do as it pertains to the tropics.

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