# With multiple days of heavy rainfall possible, we are initiating a Stage 2 flood alert through the weekend

**URL:** <https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083>\
**Category:** Space City Weather\
**Created:** [May 19, 2026, 12:02pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083 "2026-05-19T12:02:58Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 14\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/weatherbot/32/17_2.png) [@WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/WeatherBot)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 12:02pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/1 "2026-05-19T12:02:58Z")

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Originally published at: [With multiple days of heavy rainfall possible, we are initiating a Stage 2 flood alert through the weekend – Space City Weather](https://spacecityweather.com/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/)

**In brief** : In today’s post we’re are initiating a Stage 2 flood alert through Memorial Day Weekend due to the potential for periods of heavy rainfall that will accumulate in creeks and bayous over time. Please remain weather aware for the next week.

### Overall pattern

With the complete breakdown of high pressure, plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, and an upper air pattern that will eject a series of disturbances into Texas from the southwest, the next seven days (at least) should feature periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. During this time accumulations of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall are possible, with higher amounts likely in some areas. As rainfall totals stack up over time they may bring some rivers, creeks, bayous, and other waterways to flood stage. For this reason we are putting a [Stage 2 flood alert](https://spacecityweather.com/the-space-city-weather-flood-scale/) into effect through next Monday. This means that while most of our roads should be fine most of the time, there will be the potential for flash flooding, and you should remain weather aware.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2943672_REL_SCW_Flood_Scale_Graphic_vertical_mobile_1125x2436-NBB_FINAL-524x1024-1.jpg)
### You have questions, we don’t have answers

Let’s start with this fact: The large mass of showers moving into southwest Houston this morning was not well predicted. This underscores the reality that timing these atmospheric disturbances (which produce the lift and other conditions needed for rainfall) more than 24 hours out will be difficult. I know there are a lot of graduations later this week, and weekend, in addition to graduation parties. It is that time of year. Unfortunately there is no way I can sit here on Tuesday morning and tell you whether it will, for sure, rain on Friday evening, Saturday afternoon, or whenever.

All we can really say is that there is a good likelihood of rainfall, some of which may be heavy. Some of these showers may come in the form of thunderstorms, but the overall threat for severe weather beyond rainfall is not particularly high. It also will not rain all day and night, certainly, but the potential for showers during the daytime, through Memorial Day, is pretty high, especially over the weekend.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-23.png)

There are some benefits to all of this. Although Harris County is now drought free, many areas near Houston remain in a moderate to severe drought. Additionally, you may have heard about the [water crisis in Corpus Christi](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/12/texas-corpus-christi-water-emergency-restrictions-vote/). This will not end the problems there, but the potential for 3 to 6 inches of rainfall over the next week in the Coastal Bend area will provide some help with at least short-term water issues. And finally, instead of high temperatures around 90 degrees, we are going to be in the low- to mid-80s for the rest of the week.

### Tuesday

Well, if you read [yesterday’s forecast post](https://spacecityweather.com/a-very-soggy-week-lies-in-store-for-houston-with-flooding-possible/), you may recall that I thought most of the daytime on Tuesday would be rain-free. Surprise! The arrival of a round of showers from the southwest this morning means that we could see intermittent showers through about noon. I think the stronger storms associated with this system will mostly remain off the coast, but we can’t rule out some moderate or heavy rainfall in the Houston region this morning. After this we probably will see some partly sunny skies this afternoon that will allow high temperatures to push into the mid- or possibly upper-80s. It will be plenty humid.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-24-1024x671.png)

Then, beginning this evening, a weak front will approach and should move into the area from the north. I am not totally confident in how this system will progress, but we can probably expect a line of storms to develop north of Houston around sunset (i.e. in the vicinity of Conroe), and then propagate south into Houston this evening before reaching the coast around midnight, give or take. I suspect these storms will weaken as the move into the city, you should nonetheless be prepared for the possibility of thunderstorms this evening, and into early Wednesday across the region.

### Wednesday

This will be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs probably in the mid-80s. Rain chances during the daytime hours will likely depend on how worked over the atmosphere is on Tuesday night (i.e. more widespread storms on Tuesday evening would probably lead to less coverage on Wednesday during the daytime, and a weaker line of storms on Tuesday would allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday). Anyway, I’d peg rain chances in the vicinity of 50 percent. After today, rain chances will increase for the rest of the week.

### Thursday, Friday, and Memorial Day Weekend

In general we expect these days to have mostly cloudy skies, highs in the lower 80s, and overnight lows in the mid-70s. That’s the easy part. In terms of rainfall, each day will have rain chances in the vicinity of 70 to 90 percent, with slightly lower chances during the overnight hours. It would be a fool’s errand to try and predict precisely when it will rain, or when the heaviest rainfall will occur. Just know that the pattern will be broadly supportive of rainfall, and that as amounts accumulate we may well see street flooding and flash flooding (rapidly rising waters). Generally mobility will probably be OK most of the time, but probably not all of the time for everywhere. We, at Space City Weather, will be with you the whole period. It’s not exactly the Memorial Day Weekend festivities we envisioned either, but here we are.

### Next week

Rain chances will remain healthy next week, but probably take a step back to around 50 percent daily. Maybe. Honestly, it’s difficult to predict when this overly wet and cooler pattern will end with any confidence.

[![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/3833822_REL_2026-Houston-BOTB_Voting_950x150.jpg)](https://www.chron.com/bestofthebest/#/gallery/533613873/)

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**Author:** ![Weather](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/w/2acd7d/32.png) [@Weather](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Weather)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 1:04pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/2 "2026-05-19T13:04:08Z")

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And here we go. Surprise meso this morning that came out of Mexico overnight bringing light rain shield over the area. That’s a telltale story right there already. It’s going to be one of those now casting events thru the whole event folks.

I’m not expecting those rainfall totals by the models. Along the coast should miss out again. (reverse psychology to hope it happens)

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**Author:** ![CraigHarmann](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/c/e480ec/32.png) [@CraigHarmann](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/CraigHarmann)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 1:22pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/3 "2026-05-19T13:22:02Z")

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That could be good, that could be bad. Good in the way that we get the rain we need. Bad in the way that some folks get missed. Also bad in the way that we may get too much rain too quickly. But it’s rain, so I’ll take it.

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**Author:** ![iamjustlookin](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@iamjustlookin](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/iamjustlookin)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 1:56pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/4 "2026-05-19T13:56:14Z")

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I am a fan of your site and usually my go to for accurate information to the weather. However, this post was very much rage bait in the sense that - you could have gone without posting it and I would know the same amount of information had you not done so. You say stage 2 flooding but have no concrete information to back it up as your post suggest because you don’t know anything. Do better for the next post. Thanks.

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 2:12pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/5 "2026-05-19T14:12:47Z")

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Feeling big brain that I decided to mow last night after work. 😄

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**Author:** ![B\_L](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@B\_L](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/B_L)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 3:50pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/6 "2026-05-19T15:50:32Z")

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You’re going to be fun character here, I can just tell.

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**Author:** ![David](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@David](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/David)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 4:21pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/7 "2026-05-19T16:21:33Z")

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Is there a link somewhere to the old descriptions of the Stages? I.e. Tax Day flood. Memorial Day flood. As an oldtimer I can more easily relate.

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**Author:** ![lee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/lee/32/3_2.png) [@lee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/lee)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 4:22pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/8 "2026-05-19T16:22:53Z")

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The [flood scale page](https://spacecityweather.com/the-space-city-weather-flood-scale/) (linked in the top navigation bar thingy) has full descriptions of each stage with historic examples.

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**Author:** ![Josh](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/josh/32/120_2.png) [@Josh](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Josh)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 6:43pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/9 "2026-05-19T18:43:02Z")

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I’m surely not the only one around here who has full on PTSD any time there’s heavy rain around a holiday. Hoping for good soaking rains and none of the extra stuff.

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**Author:** ![Native](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/n/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Native](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Native)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 8:19pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/10 "2026-05-19T20:19:56Z")

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Unexpected rain this morning but I will take it. The next few days should be interesting. @Josh i still have PTSD from my house getting hit by lightning and catching on fire a few years ago. Prior to that I loved thunderstorms. Not so much anymore. Best of luck to Eric and Matt and the SCW team trying to figure out what the next few days have in store. I still rely on your forecasts

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**Author:** ![Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Blackhawks_Fan)\
**Post date:** [May 19, 2026, 8:47pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/11 "2026-05-19T20:47:59Z")

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I’m glad I don’t live in Katy… (ducking).

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**Author:** ![CraigHarmann](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/c/e480ec/32.png) [@CraigHarmann](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/CraigHarmann)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:17am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/12 "2026-05-20T01:17:42Z")

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A little concerned, but I think it’s going to be not a consistent deluge…at least a little bit of a break/downtime, so hopefully that helps…maybe?

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**Author:** ![sonofmojo](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/sonofmojo/32/438_2.png) [@sonofmojo](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/sonofmojo)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 11:28am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/13 "2026-05-20T11:28:58Z")

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> OK most of the time, but probably not all of the time for everywhere

This is my new mantra.

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**Author:** ![system](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/system/32/17_2.png) [@system](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/system)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 12:03pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-multiple-days-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-we-are-initiating-a-stage-2-flood-alert-through-the-weekend/1083/14 "2026-05-20T12:03:54Z")

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