# With Isaias bound for northern Gulf coast Texas to see calm, if warm, weather

**URL:** <https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331>\
**Category:** Space City Weather\
**Created:** [October 7, 2026, 11:49am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331 "2026-10-07T11:49:42Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 11\
**Page:** 1

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/weatherbot/32/17_2.png) [@WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/WeatherBot)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 11:49am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/1 "2026-10-07T11:49:42Z")

</div>

Originally published at: [With Isaias bound for northern Gulf coast Texas to see calm, if warm, weather – Space City Weather](https://spacecityweather.com/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/)

**In brief** : Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the southern Gulf, and it has a really good chance to become the season’s first hurricane. It is bound for the northern Gulf coast. This should usher in a few days of drier air into Houston this weekend.

### A Gulf hurricane?

In the modern record, an era dating back to World War II when there has been aircraft reconnaissance and later continuous satellite coverage, there has never been an Atlantic season without a hurricane. Prior to this there have been two years, 1907 and 1914, in which no hurricanes were recorded. However, that does not definitively mean there were no hurricanes. Before aircraft flew across the Atlantic, our records almost certainly missed hurricanes over the open ocean.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-10.png)

So far this year, with El Niño reaching historic strength, the Atlantic has produced several tropical storms but no systems that have reached hurricane strength. But with the formation of Isaias in the southern Gulf that is likely to change. There is a high likelihood that Isaias will become a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane over the warm Gulf waters before tracking north toward a landfall somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday.

Be sure to check [The Eyewall](https://theeyewall.com/) for full and ongoing coverage of Isaias. Along the upper Texas coast we may see tides running a foot or two higher, and some rough seas offshore. But mostly we should see some modestly drier on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

### Wednesday and Thursday

Today and Thursday will be warm (hot?) and sunny days, with high temperatures in the lower 90s for most of the region, away from the coast. Rain chances are essentially zero. Nights will be warm, with lows generally in the low- to mid-70s. On Thursday afternoon we should start to see modestly stronger winds from the northeast (on the backside of Isaias), and this will bring us some moderately drier air for a few days.

### Friday and Saturday

These will be mostly sunny days with a slightly cooler northeasterly flow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For areas along and south of I-10 there will be a slight chance of showers on Friday afternoon, but probably only in the 10 to 20 percent range. Nights will be pleasant, with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, and in the 60s for outlying areas.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-11.png)
### Sunday and Monday

The second half of the weekend, and Columbus Day, will see continued mostly sunny skies and highs around 90 degrees. Humidity levels will recover a bit, so our nighttime temperatures will rebound into the mid-70s.

### Rest of next week

With the return of the onshore flow we could see some decent rain chances as early as Monday or Tuesday of next week, and I think we’ll see a healthy 30 percent chance (or so) on a daily basis on most days. Highs will continue in the vicinity of the upper 80s to lower 90s. I’m still looking at the possibility of a stronger fall front later next week, but this is no sure thing so don’t bring out your box of sweaters just yet.

[![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/4301715-REL-SCW-Banners-Reliant-Stadium_Display_950x150.jpg)](https://www.reliant.com/en/about/community/reliant-stadium-houston?sid=ADP_1788189749)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jancris](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@Jancris](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Jancris)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 12:22pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/2 "2026-10-07T12:22:14Z")

</div>

We are driving to Florida this Friday. What are your thoughts? We normally leave around 2 am. Will it still be a dangerous drive?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 1:59pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/3 "2026-10-07T13:59:14Z")

</div>

Are you expecting Eric and Matt to do the math of when you will be in Mobile?

A category ~2 hurricane is going to hit this area sometime on Friday.

Figure it out.

 ![image](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/uploads/default/original/1X/04aa443cceb8f0e50a2109124e1c4a1b48be4665.jpeg)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![lee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/lee/32/3_2.png) [@lee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/lee)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 2:10pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/4 "2026-10-07T14:10:46Z")

</div>

> [@Jancris](#):
>
> Will it still be a dangerous drive?

Assuming you’re headed east on I10, it looks very likely that you’ll be driving through storms, yes. NHC’s [current track](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/070852.shtml?cone#contents) has Isaias making landfall near Mobile early Saturday.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/e0b2c6/32.png) [@rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/rflores23)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 2:21pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/5 "2026-10-07T14:21:00Z")

</div>

i saw a viral post from a meterologist out of the panhandle posting a map of temperatures next weekend (oct17-18), and it had temperatures of freezing in the panhandle, upper 30s in dfw and 50 in houston. Any reason to believe this?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Tiffy\_Backup](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/tiffy_backup/32/398_2.png) [@Tiffy\_Backup](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Tiffy_Backup)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 2:32pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/7 "2026-10-07T14:32:26Z")

</div>

I’m willing to try voodoo magic at this point to make it happen. Anything to end this obscene summer.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Weather](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/w/2acd7d/32.png) [@Weather](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Weather)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 2:49pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/8 "2026-10-07T14:49:22Z")

</div>

Enjoying this warm summer like weather. Everything still green as can be. Beautiful.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 5:13pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/11 "2026-10-07T17:13:24Z")

</div>

I would take it with a grain of salt for now, however it is not uncommon to get a front like that in mid October. Or atleast it didn’t used to be uncommon. Houston’s average first morning low of 50 degrees or below is October 17th. The latest 50 or below low was November 15th 2015.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 5:36pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/12 "2026-10-07T17:36:20Z")

</div>

I always try to look at the tiny victories this time of year. For example, It has technically been less intensely hot these past few days than August and September were. Dew points have generally been in the upper 60s to low 70s instead of the mid to upper 70s, and the afternoons have been in the low 90s instead of the upper 90s and 100+. Max heat index values have been in the mid 90s the past few days instead of 105 and above like before. The past couple of nights and mornings have also been fairly pleasant.

So, even though it is very slight and not super noticeable yet, it is measurably better right now than the past 4 months have been. The trend towards cooler weather has officially started. Now I obviously am anxiously waiting on the first true blast of cool air myself, but atleast I have some comfort knowing that we have stepped down from level 3 summer to level 1.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BobViolence](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/b9bd4f/32.png) [@BobViolence](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/BobViolence)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2026, 7:12pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/13 "2026-10-07T19:12:01Z")

</div>

I’ve lived an indoor existence all summer long, so what’s a few more days? (which could easily turn into a few more weeks, because Houston).

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![system](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/system/32/17_2.png) [@system](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/system)\
**Post date:** [October 8, 2026, 11:50am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/with-isaias-bound-for-northern-gulf-coast-texas-to-see-calm-if-warm-weather/1331/14 "2026-10-08T11:50:08Z")

</div>

Closed on October 8, 2026, 11:50am UTC

This topic was automatically closed after 24 hours. New replies are no longer allowed.