Typical June weather will persist for the rest of this week (also, earthquakes?)

[WeatherBot]

Originally published at: Typical June weather will persist for the rest of this week (also, earthquakes?) – Space City Weather

In brief: In today’s post we explain why June in Houston is about to turn sunnier and a bit hotter, and look ahead to conditions this weekend. Also, did you know there was a fairly large earthquake in the Gulf on Monday?

June so far

This month, to date, has seen somewhat cooler than normal weather, especially during the day. More than half of the days have not see high temperatures rise above the mid-80s in the city, and every June day so far has recorded at least a trace of rain in most parts of the area. This has kept conditions feeling slightly spring-like rather that more summer-like.

But beginning today, and probably well into the weekend, we are going to see more typical June-like weather with more daytime sunshine and somewhat hotter temperatures. Each day going forward, away from the coast, is likely to see highs ranging from 90 degrees to the lower 90s, with a smattering of afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. In short, June weather is going to be doing what June weather does in Houston.

Tuesday

Although atmospheric moisture levels remain high, increasing high pressure will influence our weather in the days to come. It won’t entirely clamp down on rain chances, but it should diminish coverage to fairly isolated to scattered showers this afternoon along the sea breeze. Overall rain chances are likely about 20 percent. Highs will reach about 90 degrees this afternoon for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light from the south before increasing a little this afternoon. Skies should be clear tonight, but lows likely will only briefly reach down into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not a whole lot changes for the rest of the work week. Highs may tick up a degree or two, but inland areas should still be in the vicinity of the low 90s, with plenty of humidity and sunshine. We will continue to see a low-end chance of rain, primarily during the afternoon hours, driven by the sea breeze. Nights will remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend, at least to start, is likely to see a continuation of this warm pattern, with scattered to isolated showers during the afternoon. However most of our model guidance indicates that high pressure may back off somewhat by next Sunday or Monday. For now I expect mostly sunny conditions on Sunday with scattered rain showers, but that could change to slightly more rain coverage depending on the timing of high pressure easing away. Temperatures will continue to be warm and humid, regardless.

Next week

At this vantage point, at least, the first half of next week appears likely to bring better rain chances. Whether this is 40 percent each day or 70 percent is something that we’ll have to iron out as we get closer. It’s June so you can expect continued muggy weather regardless.

Eye on the Gulf

Hah, I bet you thought I was going to talk about the tropics here, didn’t you? Well, you would be wrong. Things look pretty quiet over the next 10 days in the Atlantic, with only the very slight possibility of some minor mischief in the Bay of Campeche. What I actually wanted to mention is that there was an earthquake in the Gulf on Monday. At M6.1 it was fairly strong, and by some measures it may be the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the Gulf. It occurred off the northwest tip of Cuba, and was felt as far away as in Florida. I don’t think it’s a harbinger of anything ominous, but the Earthquake Insights newsletter has some interesting speculation about its cause.

[Patrick.V]

This isn’t a death ridge,this is a garden variety Bermuda high that flexes it’s muscle from time to time. If this is the pattern for this summer, tolerable heat with rain o’clock afternoons and a few days of the ridge here and there? I’ll take it.

[Buccee]

I still prefer daily showers over heat, especially cloud cover so the cars don’t bake. But maybe it’ll give us some slight relief from mosquitoes.

[Paul]

Saw this come across my alternative newsfeed this morning. Maybe you can comment on this in a future Q&A issue:

Mysterious ‘cold blob’ in the Atlantic suggests the AMOC is weakening

A patch of ocean south-east of Greenland is the only place on Earth that is cooling, and it could be a sign that the warm water “conveyor belt” in the Atlantic is slowing down

Over the past 150 years, Earth’s entire surface has been warming, except for one patch of the north Atlantic. Located south-east of Greenland, this area has cooled by as much as 1°C and is known as the “warming hole” or the “cold blob”.

Scientists have been split over why this cold blob exists, but the latest evidence backs up the idea that it is caused by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system of currents that transports warmth from the tropics to Europe.

The AMOC carries warm, salty water from the Gulf of Mexico towards the north Atlantic, where it cools and sinks, flowing back south along the ocean floor. Scientists are concerned that the surge of freshwater from Greenland’s melting ice is making this salty water less dense, so it sinks more slowly, weakening the circulation.

Some research suggests the AMOC could cross a tipping point within decades, locking in a future collapse that would freeze Europe and disrupt monsoon rains crucial for agriculture in Africa and Asia. But we only have 22 years of direct observation of AMOC strength, not enough to tease out a clear trend.

Climate modelling has suggested that a slowing AMOC is carrying less warm water to the north Atlantic, resulting in the cold blob. However, other modelling has placed most of the blame on the atmosphere.

Mysterious ‘cold blob’ in the Atlantic suggests the AMOC is weakening

[August]

Uh the earthquake was obviously the US gov testing their new seismic weapon. /s

That article about the geology is really cool, though!

[DonJarrett]

A couple of things:

The cold blob up by Greenland is garnering a lot of eye clicks. But it is kind of old news that ice cap melting may be interfering with sinking warm salt water. Maybe. But looked at on the Tidbits anomalies chart it is not so blobbishly interesting. An alternate view being discussed is that the jet reaching so high north is creating evaporative cooling there. Notice the Atlantic tropics are also cool. No one knows for sure but probably good if NSF didn’t remove the monitoring system. Seems dumb.

There is no Bermuda high in our region. We are indeed under a ridge where a balloon would have to travel to a height of nearly 20000 ft to find the pressure below 500 mb. Not a “death” ridge though as that has been more a feature of multi year La Niña. We can expect the ridge to be replaced by a trough here shortly under an incipient El Niño regime. We’ll see by August if the macro pattern still allows weeks of stationary ridging which we in the upper Gulf - out of desperation for rain and a break from the sunny blues - have coined the “death ridge”. I am too optimistic for no droughts all the time like the last 5 years or so to imagine that now.