# The Atlantic season's first hurricane is now a week late—and counting

**URL:** <https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239>\
**Category:** Space City Weather\
**Created:** [August 18, 2026, 11:52am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239 "2026-08-18T11:52:09Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/weatherbot/32/17_2.png) [@WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/WeatherBot)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 11:52am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/1 "2026-08-18T11:52:09Z")

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Originally published at: [The Atlantic season’s first hurricane is now a week late—and counting – Space City Weather](https://spacecityweather.com/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/)

**In brief** : In today’s post we spend some time discussing the slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and how we are increasingly late into the game for the first hurricane to form. We also discuss Houston’s brief period of low humidity on Monday, and look ahead to a blazing hot week.

### What’s happening in the Atlantic?

It’s really calm out there. Based on recent climatology, the first hurricane forms in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf waters) on August 11, on average. We are now one week past that. Moreover the period of mid-August to mid-October, which we have now reached, is the busiest time for the Atlantic. But right now there are crickets. Can this quietude last?

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/image-18-1024x773.png)

First of all, it would be extremely unusual to not have any Atlantic hurricanes during a season. In the last 50 years, when forecasters have had satellites and other modern detection tools, no season has gone without a hurricane. The latest date for a hurricane formation in any of these seasons is September 11, which happened in 2002 and 2013. So we are almost certainly going to get some hurricanes this year, although I would not necessarily bet on it happening before September 11.

Right now the Atlantic is just hostile to hurricanes, especially with a rapidly strengthening El Niño. We saw two reasonably promising tropical waves last week, both of which the forecast models were at times excited about, vanish into wind shear and dust. In the next 10 days or so we are likely to see a couple of more tropical waves move off of Africa. It is possible that one of these will develop into a tropical depression toward the end of August. But all available evidence suggests these will remain far from not just the Gulf, but the Caribbean as well.

As always, we will keep watching.

### Tuesday

There was a brief period on Monday afternoon, around 3 to 5 pm, when if you stepped outside it didn’t feel that much like Houston. Sure, it was hot, with temperatures in the upper 90s. But we saw enough mixing of some drier air aloft to bring humidity down into the 20s (the map below shows approximate relative humidity at 4:30 pm). It didn’t last long as this drier air was soon swamped by a humid flow off the Gulf, but it was briefly noticeable. I think something similar will happen today and Wednesday, although the effect probably won’t be quite so prominent.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/image-17.png)

Alas that’s probably the most interesting part of the forecast. Highs today will be in the upper 90s for most of the region, away from the coast, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, perhaps gusting to 10 or 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will only fall to around 80 degrees.

### Wednesday through Friday

And not much changes for the remainder of the work week: Inland highs will be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with warm and sultry nights. Rain chances are near zero.

### Saturday and Sunday

A front will die to the north of Houston, and this will introduce some slight (maybe 10 or 20 percent, at best) rain chances across the region over the weekend. But mostly we expect sunny and hot weather to persist.

### Next week

Does anything change next week? Probably not. The rest of August simply looks very hot, very sunny, and very probably rain-free.

[![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/4134772-REL-Quality-Generators-Space-City-Weather-Ad-950x150-2.jpg)](https://qualitytx.com/residential-backup-power-generators/?utm_source=spacecityweather&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=generator_august_2026&utm_content=ad_1)

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**Author:** ![JR\_Ewing\_78](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/j/3ec8ea/32.png) [@JR\_Ewing\_78](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/JR_Ewing_78)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 12:11pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/2 "2026-08-18T12:11:48Z")

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Good to know I wasn’t imagining things yesterday. I stepped outside around lunchtime and the lower humidity was very noticeable.

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**Author:** ![Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Blackhawks_Fan)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 12:12pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/3 "2026-08-18T12:12:14Z")

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And the Pacific is on the caffeine high of a double espresso.

And Lala? Lala??? Are we officially out of good hurricane names in the Pacific?

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**Author:** ![kinglyam](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/k/4491bb/32.png) [@kinglyam](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/kinglyam)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 12:16pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/4 "2026-08-18T12:16:36Z")

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Since our peak hurricane risk ends around mid-September, does this mean our odds of getting hit this year are close to nil?

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**Author:** ![Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Blackhawks_Fan)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 12:19pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/6 "2026-08-18T12:19:42Z")

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Nope. Nada. Not a chance.

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**Author:** ![Patrick.V](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/p/97f17d/32.png) [@Patrick.V](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Patrick.V)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 1:16pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/7 "2026-08-18T13:16:37Z")

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Any activity will form from small pockets of local favorability. Alicia in 1983 was a good example of this. A more recent example was Hurricane Michael in 2018. The Gulf at that time had wind shear except one small corner of the NE Gulf. That was good enough for Michael to take advantage of and became a category 5 machine gun. The likelihood of us being affected by a hurricane I think is very small with the exception of a possible pop-up very close to shore.

As far as summer goes the National Weather Service said themselves that we’re not going to get a drop for the rest of the month.

That’s too bad because up until recently has been a pretty decent summer, it’s going to go out on a hot note. With El nino coming on strong,by the month of October, we may deal with flash flood warnings and severe thunderstorm watches,who knows?

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**Author:** ![rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/e0b2c6/32.png) [@rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/rflores23)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 2:40pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/8 "2026-08-18T14:40:12Z")

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Not sure if it ends up happening, but its looking like the Eastern and Southeastern part of the US (Not Houston area) will be getting the first cold front around the 27th-31st of this month. Early estimates of highs 15-20 degrees cooler than normal.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 2:50pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/9 "2026-08-18T14:50:06Z")

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Thank god we are heading into the fall with El Nino, because after the long hot and dry spell ahead of us, we are definitely going to be needing frequent soaking rains again.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 2:51pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/10 "2026-08-18T14:51:08Z")

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@rflores23 Now that’s just downright unfair! 😁 That’s the trough/front scenario that the NWS was discussing yesterday and yes, it’s not a sure thing. At least it wasn’t yesterday. I haven’t seen the discussion today yet.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 3:34pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/11 "2026-08-18T15:34:47Z")

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It ain’t much (yet?) but there is some sea breeze action on the coast between Palacios and Angleton.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 3:48pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/12 "2026-08-18T15:48:09Z")

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I’m also concerned about how the local bayous and rivers will hold up. I have flashbacks to the spring of 2016 with the way they keep taking about this El Nino being as strong if not stronger than the one in 2015-2016.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 4:35pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/13 "2026-08-18T16:35:00Z")

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@Joseph Yes, and I’ve seen 1950 mentioned and even 1877 which is considered to be the strongest El Nino ever.

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**Author:** ![DonJarrett](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/donjarrett/32/114_2.png) [@DonJarrett](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/DonJarrett)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 4:56pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/14 "2026-08-18T16:56:17Z")

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This is the finest summer we’ve had this decade. So far no stable ridges! Yesterday looked like the sunny blues were returning but it was a dry heat and today we’re partly cloudy.

Anyone complaining hasn’t lived here for very long.

According to the mavens on X, this El Niño means the end of the world is coming even sooner. My goodness - the near Pacific equatorial 300 mile wide strip surface temperature is 5 degf warmer than normal today. More convection to the SSW of us.  
**Spes pluviae hic aeterna est!**

When the ENSO snaps back tho - it’s time to get to the mountains. We won’t like that weather at all. No sir.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 5:10pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/15 "2026-08-18T17:10:39Z")

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@DonJarrett I would agree with you even though I do not like the heat and the humidity. All things considered this summer hasn’t been that bad. And even with this heat dome over us, it’s not as bad as the death summers we’ve had recently.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 5:11pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/16 "2026-08-18T17:11:32Z")

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Tbh, the summer of 2021 was actually the most mild summer of this decade. We were under low pressure most of that summer with minimal ridges and Houston did not record a single 100 degree day.

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**Author:** ![Narillan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/narillan/32/329_2.png) [@Narillan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Narillan)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 7:02pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/17 "2026-08-18T19:02:18Z")

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Looks like some pop-up storms out by Santa fe. Means my area is nce and gray cloud covered now thanks for that

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 8:35pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/18 "2026-08-18T20:35:41Z")

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I wouldn’t mind if the Atlantic stayed hostile to hurricanes forever!

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 9:30pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/19 "2026-08-18T21:30:25Z")

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@August You and me both!

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**Author:** ![Weather](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/w/2acd7d/32.png) [@Weather](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Weather)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 9:34pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/20 "2026-08-18T21:34:41Z")

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Gauges showing around 1.25" to .50" range in the Santa Fe area. See, you never can trust 100% of what is predicted. Yes, most of everybody “got nothing”, but there wasn’t supposed to be this activity at all anywhere.

> **[Harris County Flood Warning System](https://www.harriscountyfws.org/)**

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [August 18, 2026, 9:44pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239/21 "2026-08-18T21:44:44Z")

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@Weather I would have to agree with you in this case. My impression based on the seven and ten day forecasts plus NWS discussions, etc. was that, except for a very brief and slim chance during the latter part of the week, there would be nothing during the period.

[Next page](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/the-atlantic-seasons-first-hurricane-is-now-a-week-late-and-counting/1239.md?page=2)