# Overnight rains are just the beginning of a wet pattern that should peak over Memorial Day weekend

**URL:** <https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091>\
**Category:** Space City Weather\
**Created:** [May 20, 2026, 11:42am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091 "2026-05-20T11:42:55Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/weatherbot/32/17_2.png) [@WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/WeatherBot)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 11:42am UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/1 "2026-05-20T11:42:55Z")

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Originally published at: [Overnight rains are just the beginning of a wet pattern that should peak over Memorial Day weekend – Space City Weather](https://spacecityweather.com/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/)

**In brief** : Tuesday night’s rains were mostly manageable, but they are just the first round of storms that our region will experience over the next week. We now believe the heaviest rain is likely to come this weekend, when flooding concerns will be greatest.

### This is just the beginning, not the end

In recent years Houston has often experienced a pattern in which we will see one or two days of rain before a front moves through, or high pressure sets in, or something else happens to turn off the spigot. Then we’ll have a few weeks of sunny skies and no rain. Only rarely have we seen periods of several days of moderate to heavy rainfall as we are now experiencing.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-27-1024x614.png)

The ongoing rounds of storms that will rotate into Houston through Memorial Day weekend, and possibly beyond, is probably due to the early phases of an El Niño that appears to be developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This generally promotes a wetter pattern across Texas. This El Niño is likely to peak later this fall or over the winter months, and based on recent model forecasts it could be a rather strong El Niño. So maybe we will see more prolonged periods of rain, and fewer prolonged periods of dry weather.

In any case, the rounds of showers and thunderstorms that passed through the Houston region overnight are likely to continue into early next week. It won’t rain all the time, but for most locations it probably will rain at some point each day. Saturday and Sunday look to have the best chance of precipitation, which will probably spoil a lot of Memorial Day weekend plans. So it goes here at Space City Weather where we don’t control the weather, we just get blamed for it. We’ll be here all weekend, alongside you.

### Wednesday

The storms that rolled through over night brought between 0.5 and 3 inches of rain to most locations. As expected, all streams, creeks, and bayous are well within their banks this morning. Flooding will become more likely this weekend, as rain accumulations stack up, and for this reason we issued a [Stage 2 flood alert](https://spacecityweather.com/the-space-city-weather-flood-scale/) on Tuesday, and plan to hold it in place through the holiday weekend.

Light to moderate rains are ongoing this morning, and the overall trend is one toward weakening rather than strengthening storms. Activity will shift southward over the next couple of hours, and I expect the rains to end entirely across the Houston metro area by or before noon. This afternoon we may briefly see some partly sunny skies, with high temperatures pushing into the mid-80s or so. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-70s. As for rains, I expect low-end chances through the evening hours, so if you have outdoor plans for later today I would be cautiously optimistic.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-28.png)
### Thursday and Friday

By early Thursday, with our atmosphere recharged, we are likely to see another rain-making disturbance moving into the region from the west. I don’t know whether these storms will be as widespread or active as what we experienced Tuesday night, but they definitely will have the potential to produce another 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Another, similar, round of storms will be possible at some point on Friday. Highs on both days will be in the low- to mid-80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Again, there are likely to be extended periods when it is not raining, so there will be some time to get outside and enjoy the moderate temperatures (for May).

### Memorial Day Weekend

This weekend often kicks off summer in Houston, with sunny skies and our first temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Well, not this year. A surge of moisture should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms on both days, with some of these showers producing very heavy rainfall.

By this point we may see rain accumulations from storms this week pushing up to 4 to 8 inches for some locations, so we’ll be tracking creeks and bayous closely. Harris County [has an excellent tool](https://www.harriscountyfws.org/) for you do to this for locations near you. The National Weather Service also has [a good resource](https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/) for tracking river flooding in our region. Rain chances by Monday may drop to 70 percent.

Highs will be in the low 80s, probably, and if we continue to get morning storms there may be some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon hours. Basically, you’ll need to continue to remain weather aware.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-29-1024x791.png)
### Next week

After Memorial Day rain chances will probably fall back some next week, but we probably are still looking at something like at least 50 percent daily. This, as well as ongoing partly cloudy skies, should help keep temperatures in check for the remainder of the month—which is to say we might not see 90 degrees again until at least early June.

[![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/3833822_REL_2026-Houston-BOTB_Voting_950x150.jpg)](https://www.chron.com/bestofthebest/#/gallery/533613873/)

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**Author:** ![DB57](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/8e7dd6/32.png) [@DB57](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/DB57)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:05pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/2 "2026-05-20T13:05:54Z")

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Mosquito season is about to go crazy

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**Author:** ![Buccee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/b5a626/32.png) [@Buccee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Buccee)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:08pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/3 "2026-05-20T13:08:40Z")

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There’s actually been some discussion in nerdy weather type forums as to whether we’re just seeing a routine Spring wet pattern or if it’s early signs of super Niño, which we weren’t supposed to see for a few months. But I agree with you that it’s the latter and probably has been for the past month.

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**Author:** ![Matt\_J](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/85e7bf/32.png) [@Matt\_J](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Matt_J)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:12pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/4 "2026-05-20T13:12:56Z")

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“By this point we may see rain accumulations from storms this week pushing up to 4 to 8 inches for some locations”

Does this mean Sat, Sun, Mon drops 4 to 8" after and in addition to the We’d-Fri rain ?

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:36pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/5 "2026-05-20T13:36:15Z")

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4 inches in my rain gauge so far and counting. Fortunately the rain is mostly light for now, which is preventing any flash flooding issues on streets and yards.

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**Author:** ![rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/e0b2c6/32.png) [@rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/rflores23)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:37pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/6 "2026-05-20T13:37:55Z")

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How should we feel about a rainy summer? If we had these type of events every 10-14 days that would make this summer unusually cooler than normal?

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**Author:** ![lee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/lee/32/3_2.png) [@lee](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/lee)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 1:38pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/7 "2026-05-20T13:38:26Z")

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I would feel _ecstatic_ about a rainy summer.

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**Author:** ![Humidity-Connoisseur](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/258eb7/32.png) [@Humidity-Connoisseur](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Humidity-Connoisseur)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 2:12pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/8 "2026-05-20T14:12:43Z")

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Where are all the complainers talking about how they didn’t get any rain at their house?

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**Author:** ![Narillan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/narillan/32/329_2.png) [@Narillan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Narillan)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 2:14pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/9 "2026-05-20T14:14:21Z")

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We definitely had some downpours last night. My area probably got around 3 inches with the thunderstorms. The local ducks are really happy.

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 2:23pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/10 "2026-05-20T14:23:13Z")

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Maybe Shelby will appear if we start talking about rain gauges.

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 2:23pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/11 "2026-05-20T14:23:30Z")

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Rainy summer, no hurricanes 🤞

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 3:25pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/12 "2026-05-20T15:25:35Z")

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@August Did someone mention rain gauges?

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 3:29pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/13 "2026-05-20T15:29:08Z")

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@Matt_J I think it means for the entire period in certain locations.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 3:34pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/14 "2026-05-20T15:34:40Z")

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Yes I did. I’m at just over 4.5 inches now in my rain gauge.

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**Author:** ![Native](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/n/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Native](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Native)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 4:33pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/15 "2026-05-20T16:33:29Z")

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@richbeat @Joseph just so we don’t upset Shelby, I have received a 1/4 of a wheelbarrow of rain so far. Been fairly light for the most part so far, a few short rounds of winds and downpours. Steady drizzle the rest of the time. I’m liking it so far

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**Author:** ![B\_L](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@B\_L](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/B_L)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 4:35pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/16 "2026-05-20T16:35:23Z")

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Darn, the circus that is the holiday traffic at boat launches won’t be worth watching with this dreary weather. Always fun to see the twice-a-year boater try to get loaded and unloaded with all the traffic and commotion. Everything from not being able to back up the trailer to boats floating off to lines being snapped to prepping their boat on the ramp and blocking the entire ramp. Quite the circus to watch for anyone when the weather is nice

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 4:41pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/17 "2026-05-20T16:41:45Z")

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I don’t have any rain measurement device myself, but I noticed a new lake forming on the shoulder of I-45 just north of downtown…

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**Author:** ![Shelby](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/shelby/32/97_2.png) [@Shelby](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Shelby)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 5:54pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/18 "2026-05-20T17:54:42Z")

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> [@August](#):
>
> Maybe Shelby will appear if we start talking about rain gauges.

Well y’all, I just had to run home from work and see what I got.

Maybe some of it evaporated? I’m sure I’ll catch up in the next few days. After last week’s fail, I rigged up a straight sided cement bucket and marked off inches from the bottom. Should be good enough right?

 ![IMG_2158](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/uploads/default/original/1X/2ca1256a1ece0c2189a926a1abb83212fe895c17.jpeg)

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 7:43pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/19 "2026-05-20T19:43:50Z")

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@Shelby Just like the ol’ cup and ruler method. Should be plenty good enough.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 8:09pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091/20 "2026-05-20T20:09:42Z")

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@B_L If that twice-a-year boater trying to get loaded and unloaded is loaded, it’s even more fun.

[Next page](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/overnight-rains-are-just-the-beginning-of-a-wet-pattern-that-should-peak-over-memorial-day-weekend/1091.md?page=2)