# Major flooding occurring over East Texas; Houston region to see decent rain chances as Edouard pulls away

**URL:** <https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270>\
**Category:** Space City Weather\
**Created:** [September 2, 2026, 12:04pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270 "2026-09-02T12:04:21Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/weatherbot/32/17_2.png) [@WeatherBot](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/WeatherBot)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 12:04pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/1 "2026-09-02T12:04:21Z")

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Originally published at: [Major flooding occurring over East Texas; Houston region to see decent rain chances as Edouard pulls away – Space City Weather](https://spacecityweather.com/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/)

**In brief** : In today’s post we discuss the very heavy rainfall from Edouard that occurred overnight over East Texas. We also look ahead to a warm, but not too warm period for the Houston metro area during which we will continue to see some decent daily rain chances. (Yes, really).

The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard are slowly moving to the north-northwest this morning, and rains near the center have produced significant flooding over counties to the northeast of Houston, particularly Polk and Hardin counties. Some towns north of Beaumont, including Kountze, Saratoga, and Lumberton, have received in excess of 10 inches of rainfall. Closer to Houston, locations such as Conroe, Cleveland, and Dayton have all seen several inches of rainfall.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-9-1024x637.png)

These rains should slowly lift north today, into Walker, Trinity, and Houston (note: Houston County lies well to the north of the city of Houston) counties along with the remnants of Edouard. An additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible in these counties from the slow-moving system. Strong winds have also been observed near the center of the system, with gusts in the 40s recorded near Lake Livingston. But these are now fading.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-10.png)

Let’s take a look at the forecast for the Houston metro area.

### Wednesday

Although Edouard proved a major disappointment on the rainfall front in Houston, its passage does not spell the end of our rain chances. It leaves in its wake a fair amount of atmospheric moisture, and this should produce a healthy likelihood of showers later today. Much of the area has about a 50 percent chance of rain, most likely during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Some locations may pick up as much as an inch, while other areas will miss out. Speaking of daytime heating, highs today will reach the lower 90s for most locations, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

 ![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11.png)
### Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A similar pattern will persist into Labor Day weekend. We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds during this period, with most of Houston recording highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is fairly standard for this time of year. Each day is likely to have about a 50 percent chance of rain. Some of the short-range models are fairly bullish about shower chances on Thursday, but I want to see more data before I bite. By the weekend I do not expect widespread or long-lived showers, but they could still pop up at your pool or beach day.

### Labor Day and beyond

If I had to guess—and I’m a meteorologist, so I guess I must—I would say that Labor Day will be a fairly sunny, low-rain chance kind of day. Expect widespread highs in the low- to mid-90s probably, so beaches and barbecues and the like will probably find favorable weather. There’s not a clear signal for what is coming later next week, but overall I do favor the return of healthy daily rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. So despite our disappointment at not seeing some rain from Edouard after a very dry August, I believe the overall pattern ahead of us favors a wetter pattern over the next 10 days.

[![](https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/4134772-REL-Quality-Generators-Space-City-Weather-Ad-950x150-2.jpg)](https://qualitytx.com/residential-backup-power-generators/?utm_source=spacecityweather&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=generator_august_2026&utm_content=ad_1)

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**Author:** ![B\_L](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@B\_L](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/B_L)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 12:27pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/2 "2026-09-02T12:27:29Z")

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some facebook meteorologists are reporting 22" of rain in the area - is there any truth to that?

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**Author:** ![Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Blackhawks\_Fan](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Blackhawks_Fan)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 1:26pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/3 "2026-09-02T13:26:38Z")

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Rain? Zero, zip, nada, nichts around here.

I want a refund.

As usual, this time of year, take the predicted probability of rainfall and divide by ten to get the real chance of rain. Then halve the predicted amount.

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**Author:** ![Coxmr1](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/coxmr1/32/365_2.png) [@Coxmr1](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Coxmr1)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 1:31pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/4 "2026-09-02T13:31:16Z")

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Not a drop here in the Katy area, and while it is overcast today, the bulk of the dark heavy cloud cover is hanging East of Mason Rd. Katy looking to get shafted again and we really need rain.

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**Author:** ![Shelby](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/shelby/32/97_2.png) [@Shelby](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Shelby)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 2:10pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/5 "2026-09-02T14:10:45Z")

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![IMG_3445](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/uploads/default/original/1X/774f879b2bf24a8b1c3d9e13c4c175f7d9e8b73b.jpeg)

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**Author:** ![rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/e0b2c6/32.png) [@rflores23](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/rflores23)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 2:31pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/6 "2026-09-02T14:31:47Z")

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too early to see if anything trends to a mid month cool front?

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**Author:** ![analogkid84](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/58956e/32.png) [@analogkid84](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/analogkid84)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 2:36pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/7 "2026-09-02T14:36:33Z")

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Lindner posted a radar estimated image showing a 17"+ bullseye. Also reported 15-20" overnight but did not state the source of that data.

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**Author:** ![analogkid84](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/58956e/32.png) [@analogkid84](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/analogkid84)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 2:38pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/8 "2026-09-02T14:38:52Z")

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Even up here in the Atascocita area near Lake Houston, I’d be surprised if we got more than 1/2". Right on the fringes of some moderate rains yesterday, but the bands seemed to dissipate as they rotated to the west-southwest aspect of the storm. Then the precip completely flipped to the east-northeast side.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 2:59pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/9 "2026-09-02T14:59:36Z")

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Will any rains today be able to bust through the famous Houston cap and not dissipate before making it to metro Houston? Stay tuned.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 3:15pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/10 "2026-09-02T15:15:31Z")

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It’s early in the day and it could still happen (50% rain) but so far the set up has been Beaumont/Lake Charles (again).

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 3:57pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/11 "2026-09-02T15:57:23Z")

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Well the good news is we only have 50 to 60 days left before our first real cool front. 👍

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 6:03pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/12 "2026-09-02T18:03:03Z")

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A University of Michigan study shows evidence the current El Nino is the strongest it’s been in 1000 years.

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:10pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/13 "2026-09-02T19:10:11Z")

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That’s pretty insane, but what does it mean for us?

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:13pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/14 "2026-09-02T19:13:12Z")

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@August It is. I haven’t been able or had time to try and delve deeper, but I’ll try and see what I can find out.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:22pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/15 "2026-09-02T19:22:30Z")

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Likely frequent rain and storms in the fall, winter, and spring. It is a little concerning because the last super strong El Nino in 2015-2016, led to significant river flooding in our area from repeated heavy downpours during the spring of 2016. This is obviously not a guarantee but we will be at a higher risk for excessive rains at some point in the upcoming seasons.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 8:14pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/16 "2026-09-02T20:14:42Z")

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@August They weren’t sure if climate change was causing stronger El Ninos because of model disagreements and the time period was so short. So…“(Julie)Cole’s team reconstructed a thousand-year-long ocean surface temperature record by analyzing fossilized Galápagos corals.” In that time period there was no El Nino stronger than the one we’re in now, because of human impact and the use of fossil fuels. There’s more to it, but that is the gist of it.

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**Author:** ![August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/d26b3c/32.png) [@August](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/August)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 8:40pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/17 "2026-09-02T20:40:20Z")

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@Joseph Sounds like we can’t catch a break. It’s either drought or flooding! Hopefully we don’t have a major winter storm event…

@richbeat Thanks for the background. That’s interesting how they determined that this El Nino is so strong.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 8:50pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/18 "2026-09-02T20:50:38Z")

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Yep, and the effects of anthropogenic warming will exacerbate the natural effects of this El Nino, via hotter temperatures worsening droughts and warmer oceans evaporating higher amounts of water vapor leading to worse floods.

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**Author:** ![richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/4bbf92/32.png) [@richbeat](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/richbeat)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 8:53pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/19 "2026-09-02T20:53:26Z")

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@August It does seem that way a lot. I hate to call any forecast a bust, but for metro Houston a forecast of 50%/60% rain, a weather watch day and a flash flood watch until 7:00pm, I’d have to call that a bust.

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**Author:** ![Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/user_avatar/discourse.spacecityweather.com/joseph/32/334_2.png) [@Joseph](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/u/Joseph)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 8:55pm UTC](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270/20 "2026-09-02T20:55:29Z")

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Yep, and it’s sort of always been that way in our area but the one extreme to the other issue has been a little more pronounced in recent years.

[Next page](https://discourse.spacecityweather.com/t/major-flooding-occurring-over-east-texas-houston-region-to-see-decent-rain-chances-as-edouard-pulls-away/1270.md?page=2)