Yesterday, I saw a few places post one of those “47 storms passed through where Erin is now in August and here’s where they all went” maps. Most turned out to sea, as expected. One was Ike, which we all remember too well.
No doubt model guidance that we have on Erin with nearly 20 years of improvements means high confidence that we’re not looking at landfall, much less this coming anywhere near Houston like Ike did.
That said, can you say anything about what Ike looked like when it was near the same position and why Erin has no chance to offer a repeat performance. I’m sure I’m going to need to share that with folks who are going to start panicing.